Weather

WASHINGTON – The festival and parade celebrating the 250th birthday of the U.S. Army could face some wet weather Saturday. According to the FOX Forecast Center’s Risk Of Weather Impact (ROWI) assessment, there is a Medium risk of inclement weather in the nation’s capital, with showers and thunderstorms expected. The event kicks off at 9:30 am, with a low risk of weather impacts, along with temperatures in the mid-70s. However, the rating on the ROWI scale increases as the day progresses. The celebration continues throughout the day and into the night, with fireworks planned Saturday night. During the parade, the ROWI stands at a medium risk of inclement weather, with winds over 10 mph, temperatures in the mid-70s and the best rain chances of the day.  This will be the first major U.S. military parade since 1991, following the Gulf War victory. US OPEN FACES HIGH THREAT OF WEATHER DELAYS AS STORMS SOAK OAKMONT GOLF COURSE The U.S. military first came into action during the Battles of Lexington of Concord on April 19, 1775, which signaled the beginning of the Revolutionary War, according to Army.mil. On June 15, 1775, President George Washington was named Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army. Today’s Weather News on Fox WeatherRead More

Google launched a new weather model Thursday that uses artificial intelligence (AI) in an effort to increase the accuracy of hurricane forecasts, including those developed by the National Hurricane Center. The model is now available for free on the new interactive Google website Weather Lab, which provides the model’s predictions on the formation, track, size, shape and intensity of hurricanes, officials said. Also known as tropical cyclones, hurricanes are notoriously difficult to predict due to their sensitivity to the slightest changes in the atmosphere. However, the tropical cyclone model developed by Google DeepMind, the company’s AI lab, and Google Research, a team that manages a diverse research portfolio, is able to produce 50 possible scenarios for the storms and do so with a lead time of up to 15 days.  This advance notice is significant as current models provide predictions with a lead time of up to 3-5 days. ARTIFICAL INTELLIGENCE AMONG NEW TECH SHAPING FORECASTS DURING 2025 HURRICANE SEASON The new tropical cyclone model from Google also resolves a challenge traditional models face, in that no one model can predict both track and intensity due to the different types of information needed to predict them, according to officials. On the one hand, predicting the track requires taking into account the vast atmospheric steering currents. On the other hand, predicting the intensity of a tropical cyclone involves focusing on the storm’s compact core. The new tropical cyclone model is able to process both types of information. Additionally, the AI-based model uses historical data to predict future scenarios. Google said the dataset uses millions of observations to reconstruct past weather over the entire planet, in addition to a specialized database containing key information about the track, intensity, size and wind radii of nearly 5,000 observed cyclones since 1980. “Modeling the analysis data and cyclone data together greatly improves cyclone prediction capabilities,” Google said in a statement. Tests revealed the accuracy of the new AI-based tropical cyclone model. For example, when researchers used NHC hurricane data from 2023 and 2024 in the new AI-based model, they found that its five-day cyclone track prediction was, on average, more than 85 miles closer to the true cyclone location compared to the prediction from the leading global physics-based ensemble model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). When comparing the AI-based model’s ability to predict cyclone intensity, which has been challenging for traditional physics-based weather models, researchers found that it outperformed the average intensity error of NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), a leading regional, high-resolution physics-based model. Such accuracy with the new tropical cyclone model has led Google to partner with the NHC, whose expert human forecasters will be able to see predictions from the AI-based model in real time, said DeepMind Research Scientist Ferran Alet. Information from the model will enhance the NHC forecasts by complementing the model prediction with other models, as well as the human expertise of those at the NHC. WHAT DOES IT MEAN WHEN A HURRICANE UNDERGOES ‘RAPID INTENSIFICATION’? As the NHC will be able to use the tropical cyclone model, so will the general public through Weather Lab. There, users will be able to see two other AI weather models in addition to the tropical cyclone model, WeatherNext Graph and WeatherNext Gen – both of which help shape the tropical cyclone model. WeatherNext Graph, released in 2021, can produce a single weather forecast per time and location with greater accuracy and speed than the industry gold-standard weather simulation system known as the High Resolution Forecast (HRES) from the ECMWF, according to Google. While WeatherNext Graph hones in on a specific time and location, WeatherNext Gen produces a range of up to 50 likely future weather scenarios to account for weather uncertainties and risks of extreme conditions, Google said. Released earlier this year, WeatherNext Gen, the company said, creates better forecasts of both day-to-day weather and extreme events than the top operational system, ECMWF’s ENS, up to 15 days in advance. HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER Recognizing the capabilities of WeatherNext Graph and WeatherNext Gen in forecasting a variety of weather events, the Google researchers saw their potential in forecasting tropical cyclones, specifically. “We decided to focus more on tropical cyclones for two reasons,” Alet said. “The first one is that they have a massive impact on communities. Storm surge or strong winds destroy lots of properties and cause massive damage and often hundreds of deaths. And the second thing is that they’re very hard to predict because complex interactions make their path and intensity chaotic. So we think AI can provide a solution here.” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross served as an advisor to the Google team developing the new AI-based tropical cyclone model. “It’s the first hurricane season where we’re going to really see what AI can do by this development of a tropical storm- and hurricane-specific AI model,” Norcross said. “That’s what’s new, and it’s really pretty exciting that we’re going to be able to look at this in parallel with all the things we normally look at for the hurricane season.” Hurricane season in the Atlantic basin began on June 1. Leading hurricane researchers have maintained their forecast for an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.  Today’s Weather News on Fox WeatherRead More

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas to watch for tropical development in the Eastern Pacific, including Invest 93E, which is expected to become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Dalila late this week or over the weekend. The 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season has already seen its first hurricane develop in Barbara, which briefly reached Category 1 strength on Monday before dissipating over colder waters on Tuesday. UPDATED 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST MAINTAINS ABOVE-AVERAGE PREDICTIONS FUELED BY WARM OCEAN TEMPS The NHC is monitoring a broad area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of southern Mexico, which was designated as Invest 93E on Wednesday morning. An invest is a naming convention used to identify areas the NHC is investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. Invest 93E has a medium chance of developing into at least a tropical depression in the next two days and a high chance in the next seven days.  If it attains tropical storm status, it will be named Dalila. According to the FOX Forecast Center, this system is expected to take a similar track as Barbara, which deteriorated rapidly as it moved north into colder waters. Like Barbara, the FOX Forecast Center expects that Dalila would have minimal impacts to land. Forecasters are currently waiting to see if the thunderstorms in Invest 93E become more organized, a hallmark of tropical development.  WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE? The NHC is also watching a second area for potential tropical development in the Eastern Pacific due east of Invest 93E, offshore of southern Mexico and Central America. This area is being given a low chance of development over the next seven days.  However, FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin noted this area could potentially have more impact than Invest 93E. “There’s a lot more room for growth here,” Merwin said, highlighting the large amount of warm water that is still ahead of this system.  Water temperatures of 80 degrees or higher are needed to sustain tropical development. Today’s Weather News on Fox WeatherRead More

Welcome to the Daily Weather Update from FOX Weather. It’s Thursday, June 12, 2025. Start your day with everything you need to know about today’s weather. You can also get a quick briefing of national, regional and local weather whenever you like with the FOX Weather Update podcast. Roads are closed, and first responders are conducting high-water rescues in the San Antonio area after relentless rain in Texas led to numerous reports of flash flooding, with more rounds of heavy precipitation on the way Thursday. Several inches of rain fell across San Antonio and surrounding communities in a short period of time, making the situation even more dangerous. “In San Antonio proper, we’ve picked up over 5.5 inches of rain in three hours,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “These are very aggressive rain rates.” The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas to watch for tropical development in the Eastern Pacific, including Invest 93E, which is expected to become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Dalila late this week or over the weekend. Invest 93E is currently a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southern Mexico. This disturbance has a medium chance of developing into at least a tropical depression in the next two days and a high chance in the next seven days.  If Invest 93E attains tropical storm status, it will be named Dalila. A 15-foot-long python put a neighborhood in Garland, Texas, in quite a bind last Friday evening, when animal control had to respond to calls regarding a massive snake lurking in the neighborhood. According to a social media post from the City of Garland government, the 15-foot reticulated python was circling a yard and even trapped a man on top of his pickup truck. Here are a few more stories you might find interesting. Need more weather? Check your local forecast plus 3D radar in the FOX Weather app. You can also watch FOX Weather wherever you go using the FOX Weather app, at foxweather.com/live or on your favorite streaming service. It’s easy to share your weather photos and videos with us. Email them to weather@fox.com or add the hashtag #FOXWeather to your post on your favorite social media platform. Today’s Weather News on Fox WeatherRead More

SAN ANTONIO – Roads are closed, and first responders are conducting high-water rescues in the San Antonio area after relentless rain in Texas led to numerous reports of flash flooding, with more rounds of heavy precipitation on the way Thursday. Several inches of rain fell across San Antonio and surrounding communities in a short period of time, making the situation even more dangerous. HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER “In San Antonio proper, we’ve picked up over 5.5 inches of rain in three hours,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “These are very aggressive rain rates.” More than 3 inches of rain fell in the New Braunfels area, northwest of San Antonio. As of early Thursday morning, the San Antonio Fire Department had responded to more than 10 high-water rescues, and countless roads were closed due to flooding. “It’s incredibly important not to travel,” Merwin continued. “San Antonio does have a robust system where they close roads, especially in these lower-level parts of the interstate.” DOWNLOAD THE FREE FOX WEATHER APP The FOX Forecast Center said the heavy rain and severe weather threat that began Tuesday in Texas is likely to continue through at least the rest of the workweek. A moist atmosphere, with moisture levels running well above average for early June, is what’s contributing to the threat, with strong instability and plentiful storm energy aiding in severe thunderstorm development. As winds remain light in the atmosphere, storms that develop will be slow-moving, thus producing high rainfall totals and increasing the flood potential. The FOX Forecast Center said that a stalled cold front will act as a focus point for rounds of heavy rain and storms through the rest of the week, including in areas of the Red River Valley that are already quite saturated from historic rain earlier in the spring. The flood threat will shift to the east, putting the Ark-La-Tex region at risk on Thursday. This includes cities from Houston to Little Rock in Arkansas. On Thursday, NOAA‘s Weather Prediction Center placed the Houston area in a Level 3 out of 4 threat of flash flooding, with the threat shifting into Arkansas on Friday. Most of the state has been placed in a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood threat. Today’s Weather News on Fox WeatherRead More

MIAMI – The 2025 hurricane season is off to a busy start in the eastern Pacific, with three tropical cyclones already having developed before a single named system has formed in the Atlantic, which could be an indicator of what lies ahead. Since reliable record-keeping on hurricane seasons began in the late 1960s, there have been less than two dozen years in which three or more named storms developed in the eastern Pacific before the Atlantic recorded its first. This occurrence happens about once every four years and can take place regardless of the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO. In more than 84% of the seasons where three or more named storms formed in the eastern Pacific before the Atlantic, the Atlantic basin failed to end the year with more activity than its eastern Pacific counterpart. The only seasons where the Atlantic was able to overtake the Pacific was during a La Niña or a Modoki El Niño cycle – neither of which are in control of weather patterns in 2025. These years were 1998, 2004 and 2010, with only the latest occurrence flipping the script in any meaningful way. Notably, when the eastern Pacific has produced more than four named storms before the Atlantic has even managed one, the Atlantic basin has never gone on to surpass the Pacific in total activity during the season. 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK: HERE’S HOW ACTIVE THIS YEAR COULD BE WITHOUT EL NINO, LA NINA PATTERNS Despite the historical precedent over nearly the last 60 years, forecasters at Colorado State University are betting against the odds this year.  In the organization’s latest outlook for the Atlantic basin, forecasters expect 17 named storms to form, with nine becoming hurricanes and four of those strengthening to major hurricane status – which would be a busier than an average season if the prediction turns out to be accurate. If the outlook holds true, 2025 would be in the running for being the only season with the world in a neutral status of the ENSO where the Atlantic overtakes the eastern Pacific in terms of activity. “The team bases its forecasts on a statistical model, as well as four models that simulate recent history and predictions of the state of the atmosphere during the coming hurricane season,” CSU stated in its recent release. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross analyzed the latest outlook from CSU and had some words of caution for those wanting to edge the prediction into stone. “…there is more uncertainty than normal in these numbers because nothing is really pushing the season any which way. All these signals are very weak. When signals are weak, then if something is just teeter tottering, it can tip over, you know. So, we wouldn’t be surprised to see this forecast be wrong,” Norcross stated. HURRICANE SEASON 2025: HERE ARE THE NAMES FOR STORMS YOU’LL SEE THIS SEASON Pools of warmer and colder water temperatures across the Pacific and Atlantic will play a major role in shaping what unfolds across both basins during the next five months of the tropical cyclone season. Currently, a neutral signal – commonly referred to as “La Nada“- is in place, which can lead to wide variability in how active the season becomes, but it’s the localized pockets of above- or below-normal sea surface temperatures that can make a difference. For instance, in the eastern Pacific, the warmest waters are located along the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico, which has supported the formation of Alvin, Barbara and Cosme, with Dalila and Erick waiting in the wings. These cyclones have not maintained strength for long due to a vast pool of cold water stretching from the Baja Peninsula to Hawaii and extending southward toward the equator. It’s this combination of warm and cold pools that has led NOAA and other global agencies to declare that a neutral phase, known as a La Nada, is currently underway. If one of these anomalies gains dominance, either a La Niña or El Niño could emerge, but such a shift is not expected to occur until after the peak of the hurricane season has passed. In the Atlantic, several conflicting pockets of sea surface temperatures are at play – many of which are known to suppress cyclone activity. Forecasters are paying close attention to the Atlantic’s Main Development Region, which has generally remained at or just below average, the extremely warm waters of the northern Atlantic and a small but impactful phenomenon called the Atlantic Niña, which tends to reduce sea temperatures near the African coast. As of now, none of these features appear to be producing favorable conditions for enhanced tropical cyclone formation, meaning if there is an error in the tropical seasonal forecasts, it likely leans toward overestimating storm activity versus underestimating. One area of notable concern lies in the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf and the Caribbean. If a cyclone were to enter these regions, conditions would likely exist for rapid intensification and development. Today’s Weather News on Fox WeatherRead More